The South African Denuclearization Exemplar

ABSTRACT

South Africa's nuclear disarmament is a unique historical case, notable in part for the dramatic shift from deception to cooperation. The unprecedented transparency it demonstrated in order to convince the international community of the veracity of their disarmament is heralded as an exemplar for verifiable denuclearization. Less known is how this case affords insights into how a nuclear weapon program can be clandestinely hidden by the ambiguity provided by an otherwise completely legitimate, peaceful, nuclear energy program. Using a variety of open sources, including newly declassified internal South African and US government reports, it can be shown that South Africa employed a variety of deceptive tactics before it disarmed, and even for nearly two years after becoming a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This article reviews that information to derive instructive lessons on the lengths that a nuclear proliferant state might go to conceal its true capabilities and intentions, and to thwart international discovery of the existence and full extent of an existing—or, in this case, a former—nuclear weapon program.     

Efficient distributions of arms‐control inspection effort

A rule that constrains decision‐makers is enforced by an inspector who is supplied with a fixed level of inspection resources—inspection personnel, equipment, or time. How should the inspector distribute its inspection resources over several independent inspectees? What minimum level of resources is required to deter all violations? Optimal enforcement problems occur in many contexts; the motivating application for this study is the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in support of the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Using game‐theoretic models, the resource level adequate for deterrence is characterized in a two‐inspectee problem with inspections that are imperfect in the sense that violations can be missed. Detection functions, or probabilities of detecting a violation, are assumed to be increasing in inspection resources, permitting optimal allocations over inspectees to be described both in general and in special cases. When detection functions are convex, inspection effort should be concentrated on one inspectee chosen at random, but when they are concave it should be spread deterministicly over the inspectees. Our analysis provides guidance for the design of arms‐control verification operations, and implies that a priori constraints on the distribution of inspection effort can result in significant inefficiencies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

薄壳结构跌落冲击仿真与试验研究

为了验证薄壳结构跌落冲击问题动态数值仿真的方法途径,设计制作了带有配重的薄壳结构,测定了材料主要力学性能,利用非线性有限元软件对该结构进行单次和累积结果的多次跌落冲击数值仿真,并进行了验证试验。对该结构的跌落冲击过程、典型位置的加速度响应、塑性变形的仿真、验证试验结果进行了对比分析,结果表明：采用的数值仿真方法和途径能够较好地研究分析薄壳结构的跌落冲击及其他同类问题。     

一种精确定位篡改攻击位置的混沌数字水印算法

基于混沌变换良好的随机性和初始条件极端敏感性,提出了一种精确定位篡改位置的脆弱混沌数字水印算法．该算法将混沌加权后DCT中低频系数作为图像特征,利用混沌DCT匹配块对生成脆弱水印序列,最后嵌入到图像的DCT中频系数中．实验结果与分析表明,该算法几乎不影响图像的视觉质量,对图像篡改区域具有检测有效性和定位准确性,实现了盲认证．该算法不仅提高了篡改定位的精度,虚检率与漏检率也相应降低．     

C~3I系统中软件的程序设计方法问题

软件的可靠性是Ｃ￣３Ｉ系统成败的关键之一,用规范和程序分离的办法设计软件,其可靠性无法得到保证。该文阐述了应研究形式化程序设计方法的意见,以及目前在这一领域尚存在的困难和解决的途径。     

众核处理器访存链路接口的FPGA验证

面向众核处理器提出一种访存链路接口的现场可编程门阵列(Field-Programmable Gate Array,FPGA)验证平台,用于对处理器访存链路关键部件进行功能及可靠性测试。提出片上读写激励自动产生与检查机制、以太网接口硬件用户数据报协议(User Datagram Protocol,UDP)协议栈和FPGA芯片间多通道并行链路三项关键技术并进行设计实现。实验结果表明提出的各项关键技术功能正确,不仅丰富了功能验证中随机激励产生及结果验证的手段,而且实现了对链路数据检错和多lane间延迟偏斜纠正逻辑的可靠性测试与评估。经过该平台验证的访存链路接口在实际芯片中通过了功能正确性测试,证明了验证的有效性。     

雷诺应力模型的初步应用

针对SSG/LRR-ω雷诺应力模型,选取NASA湍流资源网站上的四个典型算例,即湍流平板边界层流动、带凸起管道流动、翼型尾迹区流动和NACA0012不同攻角绕流,开展初步的验证与确认工作,将部分结果和CFL3D进行对比。对于NACA0012翼型绕流,对比雷诺应力模型和SA模型的升力系数,结果表明:在失速攻角附近,雷诺应力模型明显优于SA模型。在此基础上,将该模型应用于DLR-F6翼身组合体的数值模拟,计算得到的机翼表面典型站位压力分布和实验值吻合良好,同时该模型捕捉到翼身交汇位置的小范围分离。     

可执行体系结构研究

体系结构是系统设计与实施的蓝图,它能否正确、合理地指导实践在很大程度上依赖于体系结构的验证与评估.可执行体系结构研究为体系结构验证与评估开辟了新的途径.为了使各体系结构产品在整体上形成一个执行体,提出了可执行体系结构执行规则描述这一个概念.执行规则描述体系结构产品的执行、调用与数据流关系,为体系结构的执行提供了特定的背景信息.它通过标准的动态可执行模型接口分别调用该模型的执行引擎,从而达到体系结构在整体上执行的目的.体系结构的正确执行为体系结构验证提供依据,同时其运行结果为体系结构的评估提供依据.     

YHFT-DX处理器全定制EDA技术的开发与应用

在YHFT-DX处理器的研制中,研究并实现了多项支撑全定制设计的EDA技术。针对全定制设计的功能验证,研究并实现了层次式功能模型自动提取技术,能够将晶体管级网表转化为等效的RTL级网表。研究并实现了晶体管级混合时序分析方法,可自动分析全定制设计的延时,并采用多线程并行的方法获得了约10倍左右的速度提升。为提高模拟结果分析的效率,开发了一个延时提取的工具Aimeasure。开发了两个信号完整性分析工具PNVisual和NoiseSpy,分别用于全定制设计的IR-Drop分析和噪声分析。上述技术已在YHFT-DX处理器的设计中得到了广泛应用,有效提高了全定制设计的效率与质量。     

FACILITATING NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: Verified Declarations of Fissile Material Stocks and Production

Unprecedented interest in seeking progress toward nuclear disarmament exists today; even some nuclear weapon states are looking for new ways to strengthen this process. National declarations of fissile material holdings—highly enriched uranium and plutonium—could play an important role in supporting this effort, facilitating not only transparency but also the irreversibility of the process. This article discusses what kind of content such declarations could have in order to be meaningful and effective, the sequence of data on fissile material holdings that states might release, and some of the challenges to be expected in reconstructing historic fissile material production; it also summarizes current attitudes of weapon states toward making such declarations. Initial declarations can be valuable as confidence-building measures, but better and more background data are necessary if declarations are to serve as the groundwork for deeper cuts in the nuclear arsenals. A robust verification approach would ultimately require inspectors to have access to fissile material production and storage sites. The methods and tools of nuclear forensic analysis—in this context also dubbed nuclear archaeology—would be a key element of this process. This article discusses the capabilities and limitations of potential approaches to verifying declarations of historic production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium; it also identifies and discusses opportunities for further research and development.